(Photo: Justin Setterfield/Getty Images)
Could Hugh Carthy win the Vuelta a España?
Normally I’d say ‘no.’ But with the way the Giro d’Italia has just played out, I won’t put it out of the question. Roglic could be tired, feeling the fatigue of a long and stressful season filled with Grand Tours and Classics. Carapaz could be feeling the same way – he looks to be on form now, but he still did the Tour. First week form does not always equal third week form.
Hugh looks strong as hell, and so does Dan Martin. This will be a fascinating race to watch. Both riders have been punching below their weight for a couple of years now, but this could change everything. Winning – or even finishing on the GC podium – at the Vuelta would be a career achievement for either.
Most didn’t report this (mainly because us Americans are sad), but Sepp Kuss fell out of the GC race yesterday. He’s now 10 minutes down and will surely be going for stage wins. With his current form, I wouldn’t be surprised if he got three. Too many breakaways and he’s back into the GC picture. And the tables reset.
Now for our Stage 7 prediction. We went well on Stage 6, picking Rui Costa for the break. Didn’t quite have the legs in the end, but he was looking strong all day.
A very odd profile we have for Stage 7. It looks like a sprint stage, but with two laps up a mountain to tackle. Surely a day for the breakaway. GC riders may attack on the final climb – it’s 15km from the top to the finish, but not all is downhill. An organized chase could easily make up a 30-second gap from the climb. But the climb is tough – the majority hovers around 8-8.5%. A climb of that length will surely be attacked. But can anyone hold it to the line?
As we saw yesterday, the riders make the race just as much as the course. And sometimes the weather plays an even bigger factor. I think that the reason we saw major gaps yesterday was down to the weather conditions. Being wet and cold will do all sorts of things to the body, and most of them are not good.
I expect to see Guillame Martin or Tim Wellens (or both) in the breakaway tomorrow, both for the mountain points and for the opportunity at a stage win.
I’ll keep giving a shout to Will Barta until he makes the break. The American is climbing well, and far enough down that he won’t be heavily marked. One last breakaway pick: Michael Storer of Team Sunweb.