(Photo: Roglic wins Stage 10 of la Vuelta a España – Justin Setterfield/Getty Images)
Well, I expected Roglic to be strong today, but not THAT strong. He crushed the sprinters and put time into his GC rivals, all on a 1.5km unclassified climb at the end of a fairly easy stage. The Slovenian looks to be the strongest rider in la Vuelta right now, and it would be wrong to pick anyone else as the favorite for tomorrow’s stage.
Stage 11 kicks off a huge week in the mountains at la Vuelta. With l’Angliru coming on Sunday, and then a 31km ITT on Tuesday, the GC could well be decided by the middle of next week. But we’ll save those previews for a later date.
On Saturday, the peloton will tackle four category one climbs in 170km, plus a category three ascent right out of the gate. It will be an incredibly tough start, and I expect to see multiple splits, and most – if not all – the sprinters dropped. They’ll come back once the breakaway goes and the pace settles down, but it won’t be a fun start. Expect to see most riders warming up on a turbo trainer before the start tomorrow, especially those with an eye on the early break. Guillame Martin will be there. The next two stages are his best shots at a stage win while wearing the mountains jersey.
The final climb tomorrow of the Alto de la Farrapona is not the toughest of the stage, and it is really only the last 6km that we need to focus on. The first portion of the climb is rolling and punchy, with just a few steep-ish ramps and a number of flat and false flat sections. The pace will most certainly be high, but none of the favorites will be dropped here. The last 6km of the climb averages nearly 9%, and this is where the contenders will make their move.
However, don’t discount the preceding climbs: the Alto de Cobertoria comes midway through the stage, and is 10km at an average of 8.7%, with the steepest pitch coming in the middle at over 12%. If that doesn’t sound hard enough, the penultimate climb of the Puerto de San Lorenzo will be feared by most. The final 5.3km average a ridiculous 11%, and the crest of the climb comes with less than 40km to go.
If we look at the GC picture, we see a huge potential for long range attacks tomorrow. While the Top 5 are separated by less than two minutes, 6th through 18th in GC are separated by only four minutes, with 18th place Matteo Cattaneo only 7:27 behind Roglic. If one of these riders were to slip into the break, they might be given a small leash. And with great legs, a rider like Aleksandr Vlasov or Marc Soler could move themselves back into the fight for the GC podium.
Roglic is clearly the favorite for tomorrow, as he showed again today that he has magical legs and can do just about anything. Richard Carapaz is almost on the same level, but seems to be missing that last 1% he needs to match Roglic.
As a fan, I’m hoping for a great ride from Hugh Carthy tomorrow. His teammate, Mike Woods, could do some serious damage on the final climb. If the Canadian is in the break, he will win.
My breakaway picks for tomorrow: Guillame Martin, Wellens, Woods, and Storer.
Vlasov has a great chance to take back time tomorrow if his legs are as good as a few days ago – if they are even better, he could certainly challenge for the stage win. I can’t see Roglic cracking tomorrow. He will be at the head of affairs all day, thanks to Robert Gesink and Jumbo-Visma doing the majority of the work on the front. Sepp Kuss might get free reign to go for the stage win, but with Roglic now in the leaders jersey, I expect to see Kuss either setting a high tempo or going up the road with a satellite attack.