(Magnus Cort wins Stage 16 of la Vuelta – Justin Setterfield/Getty Images)
What an awkward final sprint that was. The Valverde of old would have won that easily. Today, he got beat by Primož Roglic. No disrespect to the Slovenian – who is arguably the best all-around cyclist in the world right now – but Valverde is clearly missing something.
I thought about picking Cort for today, but didn’t – alas, he came through with the goods today, winning the sprint out of an ultra-select group of just 40 riders. You know it’s a weird one when Aleksandr Vlasov, Guillame Martin, Sepp Kuss, and Wout Poels all finish in the Top 20 in a bunch kick.
***
Stage 17 to Alto de la Covatilla (178.2km)
This is it! This is the last opportunity for the GC men to take a shot. With six classified climbs on offer, and a tough finish atop the Alto de la Covatilla, we could certainly see some major gaps.
The first climb of the day is the category 1 Puerto del Portillo de las Batuecas. 14.1km at 5.3% doesn’t sound like much, but that includes a long false flat section at the beginning of the climb; the final 9km average a steady 7%. If the break hasn’t gone already in the opening hour, there will be a huge fight to get in the move here.
For the next 90km, there are few major climbs to cover, but a number of significant bumps in the form of three category 3 ascents. None are particularly tough or steep, so we are unlikely to see any real action in this central portion of the stage.
With 38km to go, the finale of la Vuelta begins. First is the category 2 Alto de la Garganta (11.4km at 5.1%). The gradients aren’t overly challenging, but if a team decides to line it out at the front (e.g. Movistar), we can expect to see major splits and plenty of fatigue heading into the final climb of the day.
There is hardly any descending before the peloton tackles 10km of rolling roads and then the final ascent of the Vuelta, the Alto de la Covatilla. Like the opening climb of Stage 17, the classified portion of the Covatilla is not as intimidating as the climb is in reality. 11.7km at 6.9% is what the roadbook says, but it is the last 8km that will do the damage – at 8km to go, the road kicks up to over 10% and stays there for 2km. The gradients bounce around 8-9% all the way until the final few hundred meters where the road flattens out at the possibility of a final sprint.
The attacks will begin at 8km to go, and continue all the way into the final kilometer. The GC time gaps are big enough that no one can leave it to the final sprint. Carapaz needs 45 seconds to take the red jersey from Roglic, and Carthy is an additional 8 seconds behind. Dan Martin would need nearly a minute over the favorites to jump onto the podium, so I doubt we see the Irishman go all-in tomorrow against the likes of Roglic, Carapaz, and Carthy.
There will be plenty of tired legs tomorrow, and a swath of ultra-motivated riders looking to put on exclamation point on the last race of the season. I really hope to see an EF train – or maybe just Mike Woods – hitting the front at 8km to go and lighting the race on fire. Carthy has had magical legs since the second week, and I think he believes he can knock Carapaz off the second step of the podium.
Roglic and Jumbo-Visma are likely to play if safe tomorrow. They won’t be concerned with anyone going up the road apart from Carapaz, Carthy, Dan Martin, or even Enric Mas if the Spaniard goes for a long-range attack. That is why I think we are likely to see the stage win go to another great climber, but one that is not truly in the GC fight. A rider like Vlasov or Großschartner will be given more lee-way tomorrow and, if they have the legs, they will deliver.
If Guillame Martin gets in the break, he could certainly win the stage. I think it is unlikely – despite my love for the polka-dot wearing Frenchman – that he will win, given the efforts of the past three weeks.
With the GC podium hanging in the balance, and bonus seconds on the line, I think the breakaway has but a 10% chance of succeeding tomorrow. Marc Soler looked strong again today, and is one to watch if he goes into the break tomorrow. Let’s hope we don’t see a repeat of a year or two ago when Soler was ordered to wait for Quintana despite the former being on his way to a solo stage win.
In the end, I think Sepp Kuss will help guide Primož Roglic to Vuelta glory, closing gaps to Hugh Carthy and Richard Carapaz on the final climb, and setting up the Slovenian to blow the doors off everyone in the final sprint atop the Alto de la Covatilla.