On December 9th, the inaugural Zwift World Championships will take place on the virtual roads of Watopia – 50km around the Figure 8 course for both the men and women, with a new finish atop the Watopia KOM Forward. There will be a mix of WorldTour pros and world’s-best e-Racers on the startline, and it will be fascinating to see who comes out on top. (My vote is the latter).
The Course: 1.7 laps around Watopia’s “Figure 8”
A flat and fast start will drop few as the riders head under the ocean for the first few kilometers. After a twisting ascent to the 360 Bridge, they hit the first climb of the day, Watopia’s KOM Reverse. There’s a steep section at the bottom, requiring a huge effort of ~40 seconds to get over the crest. The climb then rolls on up for another minute and a half, all around 3-5%. Nothing too challenging, especially for this caliber of riders.
In total, the Watopia KOM Reverse will be roughly a three and a half minute effort at an average of 6w/kg.
Riders will descend down the Watopia KOM Forward, and here we’ll see who has experience on Zwift versus who does not. The inexperienced will keep pedaling, while Zwift veterans will save energy in the supertuck.
After passing through downtown, the field will then climb up the rollers towards the Seaside Sprint. These punches are short (just a couple seconds each), with just one, longer hill before the sprint banner. The pace will be high in the main peloton, and those who understand the nuances of the game will have no problem sitting in the draft at less than 5w/kg on average.
Instead of heading back towards the Watopia KOM Reverse, the riders will now finish off the Figure 8 by diving back underwater for a few kilometers of flat before the crux of the course: the Watopia KOM Forward is where the race will be won and lost. Approximately 900 meters at an average of 5.5%, the gradient is deceiving because of the two small sections of road that flatten out. The majority of the climb sits at a steady 7%, where the draft is still there, but is just a fraction of what it was on the flats.
In a race of this caliber, the Watopia KOM Forward will take just 80-90 seconds in the men’s race, and 90-100 seconds in the women’s. On the first ascent, the field will split into pieces, but there is a 0% chance of a solo breakaway going from here to the finish.
My guess is that the real-life pros will attack the climb, while the savvy e-Racers will sit in and save their energy, counting on the race coming back together in the ~25km of racing still to come.
I heard rumors that the drafting algorithm was changed for Zwift’s Tour de France, making it easier for breakaways to stay away. As full-time Zwifters know, a ‘blob’ of 30+ riders is almost impossible to beat, no matter the strength of the breakaway.
Power-ups will also be in play, but only the Aero boost and Featherweights will be available. It will be fascinating which riders choose to keep their power-ups, and which decide to use them at every ample opportunity. Strong finishers are more likely to hold on to the Aero’s, while the climbers, attackers, or those who simply struggle on the climbs will likely hang on to their feathers until the road tilts uphill.
After the completion of the full Figure 8, the race heads back out for the same loop, but this time finishing at the top of the Watopia KOM Forward. By the time the field hits the Watopia KOM Reverse for the second time, I doubt we see any major splits, as the selection will have already been made. There’s a chance that some groups could come back together – but if they’ve already gotten dropped once, chances are, they will get dropped again.
The finale of the Zwift World Championships will kick off with just under 1km to go at the bottom of the Watopia KOM Forward. Perhaps 20 or 30 riders will arrive at the bottom of the climb together, with positioning being far less important than in real-life (since you can kind of just ride through people in Zwift).
The fastest-ever ascents of the Watopia KOM Forward belong to Vince Gerits (StageCo CT), Anders Foldager in 1:19 (POAUTO-CeramicSpeed), and Thomas Thrall – who just crushed me and everyone else at the Echelon Racing League Virtual Tour of the Gila on RGT – in 1:20 (EVOQ), according to Zwift Power.
That’s an average of 11.1, 10.7w/kg, and 10.4w/kg, respectively. These numbers are absolutely nuts. Some riders struggle to hit 11w/kg in a sprint; holding 11w/kg for 30 seconds is pretty impressive; and 11w/kg for a minute is considered ‘elite.’
11.1w/kg for a minute and 19 seconds… Crazy.
It will be fascinating to see if this record gets broken at the Zwift World Championships. Honestly, I doubt it, considering the fatigue that riders will be carrying in their legs after 49km of world-class e-Racing, and the waiting-for-the-sprint tactics that will likely be employed.
In the women’s race, I expect to see multiple records broken in terms of power and segment times, mostly thanks to the presence of multi-time World Champions, Annemiek Van Vleuten and Anna Van Der Breggen.
Women’s Favorites
Both the men’s and women’s fields at the 2020 Zwift World Championships feature a mix of real-life pros and top tier e-Racers. In the women’s field, we will be treated to see the world’s best, with the likes of Annika Langvad (Denmark), Lisa Brennauer (Germany), Louise Bates (Great Britain), Ashleigh Moolman-Pasio (South Africa), Sarah Gigante (Australia), and the aforementioned Dutch duo of Van Vleuten and Van Der Breggen (Netherlands).
Gigante is a talented e-Racer herself, and will team up with her compatriot Bree Vine in the World Championships. Ella Harris (New Zealand), and a full team of nine Americans including Krista Doebel-Hickok, Kristen Faulkner, Christie Tracy, Laura Matsen-Ko, and Lauren Stephens will certainly be at the front of the race, and could even challenge for the win at the end of the day.
Men’s Favorites
The men’s field features a diverse group of talent which transcends countries, disciplines, and virtual reality. A few names you may recognize from the real-world: Victor Campenaerts and Eli Iserbyt (Belgium), Jack Haig (Australia), Rigoberto Urán (Colombia), Tom Pidcock (Great Britain), Alberto Bettiol and Domenico Pozzovivo (Italy), one of my favorite riders in the world in Edvald Boasson Hagen (Norway), and Lawson Craddock (USA).
Riders like Campenaerts and Uran have world-class power numbers over an hour (or three or five…), but that will be of little use in a race that will be so short and punchy. Pidcock has the power profile to win this race, and does he have enough experience on Zwift to match? There is a huge difference between holding 5w/kg for an hour versus 4-4.5w/kg. Zwift veterans will know how to sit in and save energy, while the inexperienced will keep on smashing for fear of getting dropped.
The men’s e-Racing field is the strongest we have ever seen – fitting for the inaugural Zwift World Championships – with nearly all of the top-ranked racers on the start list. Here are just a few of the favorites: Ben Hill and Jay Vine (Australia), Lionel Vujasin (Belgium), Lionel Sanders (Canada), Foldager and Nicklas Pedersen (Denmark), Christopher McGlinchey (Ireland), Ollie Jones (New Zealand), Samuel Brännlund (Sweden), and Holden Comeau and Brian Hodges (USA).
Predictions
The women’s race will be an intriguing spectacle because of the divide between real-life pros and e-Racers. While the men’s field has a heavier mix, with many road pros racing heavily on Zwift as well, I’m not sure if the strongest women in Zwift Worlds have ever raced on the platform before. And for that reason, and many others, I’m picking Lauren Stephens (USA) to win the inaugural Zwift World Championships. She has had an incredible year on both real-life roads and one Zwift, having one a stage at the Zwift Tour de France earlier this year. I think her mix of strength and e-Racing knowledge will leave her with enough energy at the end to power away on the final climb to take the win.
In the men’s race, I see the e-Racers coming out on top. A punchy rider with a good sprint will win atop the Watopia KOM Forward, and I think it will be Holden Comeau (USA) who takes the rainbow stripes in the Zwift World Championships.