POWER ANALYSIS – 2023

Editor’s note: It’s been a long time since I’ve written one of these articles. Back in the peak of 2022, I was writing at least one power analysis article per week. It became a trend that hasn’t yet passed, but the landscape is beginning to change.

The audience has begun questioning the validity of such numbers, in large thanks to the horribly inaccurate Shimano power meter that multiple teams are using. Other conditions such as the weather (wind and temperature), drafting, and aerodynamics add to the assumption that these numbers are bullsh*t.

Well, my audience, you have a point. But in my power-analysis-writing-career (and what a career it has been, *sarcasm), I’ve always tried to toe the line between fact and assumption.

These guys are fast: fact.

That guy did exactly 6.3w/kg for 25 minutes on that climb: assumption.

Those three guys did ~6w/kg for half an hour on that climb (because that’s what their power meters said, and they went 30 seconds faster than the ten guys that did 5.8w/kg on that climb): fact and assumption.

The funny part is that it doesn’t really matter. Riders who win crossed the line first; it doesn’t matter what their power meter said. But humans like to compare themselves to each other. That’s why we test our FTP, why we gawk at the four-minute mile, or fixate on the two-hour marathon.

Numbers are cool, and that’s why they’re still here.

Power analysis isn’t going away, but I’m not sure where it will be posted. Of course, it can be here, with my lovely side commentary. Or it can be in a super professional publication like it has been in recent years. Let’s hope for the best, and the best means record-setting power numbers with absolutely zero doubt that they are legitimate… ha

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Apparently the season just started at Omloop Het Niewsblad, and for the first time in my life, I didn’t have to Google “how to spell Niewsblad.”

Sh*t, I just Googled it, and I forgot the “u.” Nieuwsblad.

Dylan Van Baarle won solo because, even after he did the same exact thing at Paris-Roubaix last year, the peloton still doesn’t know that he’s uncatchable if he’s solo at 35km to go.

Arnaud De Lie finished second, confirming he is the next Tom Boonen or Eddy Merckx, or…is it too early to call him the next Remco Evenepoel?

De Lie is 20 years old and massive by cycling standards, weighing in somewhere around 80 kg. He is a beast on the bike, and don’t let the look fool you; he can climb. The Belgian had the ride of the day despite finishing the bridesmaid.

Can someone explain to me what that phrase means?

After crashing with over 40km to go, De Lie was so far behind the peloton that the helicopter couldn’t even get them in the same shot. He was barely in the convoy of cars, which are hardly helpful on the narrow and sketchy roads of a Belgian Classic.

But minutes later, De Lie could be spotted at the back of the peloton, surrounded by a couple of teammates who helped bring him back to the front. Though we never saw that part on camera, so I wouldn’t be surprised if De Lie bulldozed his way to the front on his own.

You could hardly catch your breath before Le Die was following the strongest move of the race a few kilometers later. The young Belgian was supposed to be saving energy after a long chase back on, but now he was following some of the best Classics riders in the world up and over one of the hardest climbs in the race.

When Van Baarle went, De Lie was still in the main group. Also known as the wildly complacement peloton, considering the Paris-Roubaix winner had just gone motoring up the road. That’s not a commentary on the position of the motor bikes when Van Baarle went solo; but it also kind of is.

Van Baarle wasn’t going to get caught, but that didn’t stop De Lie from trying. He made it into the main chase group on the road, who pulled 50 kph turns with Christophe Laporte in tow. The Frenchman sat on 100% of the time in the break and was surely going to win the sprint for second. Surely.

That was until the reduced peloton came roaring back in the final kilometer, catching the backwheels of the chase group with less than 300 meters to go. Laporte was ready to launch, but he was overtaken by the momentum of the peloton. De Lie was too, about to be overtaken by the peloton’s momentum… But in a matter of five 1500w pedal strokes, the Belgian was up to speed…giving a leadout to Laporte.

The Frenchman began coming out of his wheel as the finish line neared. And on the other side of the rode, some of the world’s best sprinters had been launched into full flight by a flurry of leadouts. But on his own, sprinting with blood on his knee from the crash that most had forgotten about, was Arnaud De Lie. Not the next Boonen or Sagan or Merckx. It’s Arnaud De Lie.

Oh right, Van Baarle won solo. De Lie got second. But writing about a solo win without boring data is really boring.

Here’s the finale of Omloop, by Arnaud De Lie:

De Lie was pushing 500-600w for 1-2 minutes up almost every climb in the final 70km of Omloop Het Nieuwsblad. His recovery in between each section is remarkable, just look at how quickly his heart descends from the 180s down to 160bpm. In the final 10km, he kept rolling turns with the chase group, but you can tell that he wasn’t on his limit.

And if you still weren’t sure, check out the sprint he cracks out at the end. After 5 hours of racing at a Normalized Power of 340w, De Lie did 1196w (15.3w/kg) for 15 seconds with a peak 5-second power of 1419w. That is absolutely ridiculous.

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Other power data highlights that may or may not be explored one day:

Kobe Goossens won in Mallorca with multiple 6.2+w/kg for 20min climbing performances

Neilson Powless won the Grand Prix Cycliste de Marseille La Marseillaise and Etoile des Bessèges with ridiculous 5-20min performances

Arnaud De Lie absolutely rolled over Mads Pedersen and Benoît Cosnefroy at Etoile des Bessèges with 9w/kg for almost two minutes

Matteo Jorgenson won the Tour of Oman with ~6.5w/kg for ~20 minutes on Green Mountain

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Featured image: Cor Vos