— In collaboration with Cyclists Hub —
In the introductory article, we took a closer look at Cycling Monuments and the development of average speeds. In today’s article, we’ll look at what type of rider is most likely to win specific monuments.
Lighter riders who excel in the mountains and can recover well day-to-day have an advantage in Grand Tours and overall classifications. While heavier riders may struggle to adapt to the demands of GC-focused racing. Similarly, in Monuments, we can observe the physiological prerequisites for victory.
For these purposes, we look primarily at height, weight, and BMI. While we understand the limitations of this data, the historical results give us some interesting trends and insights.
All Monuments Are Not Equal
The physiological demands of each cycling Monument are quite different. Monuments should be seen individually, depending on the type of rider. They differ fundamentally in their profiles and climbs. For example, Milano Sanremo is one of the flatter Monuments, while Il Lombardia is extremely hilly.
This means that the flatter Monuments will benefit heavier riders, who can produce higher absolute watts, while the hillier monuments will benefit the lighter riders, producing higher w/kg.
Why is this so?
On a flat road, raw wattage is generally more important than watts per kilogram. That’s because raw wattage and aerodynamics matter more at higher speeds. On flat roads, watts divided by aerodynamic efficiency (W/CdA) is a better predictor of cycling speed.
But on steep climbs, the speed is lower, so aerodynamics matter less, and weight matters more. Thus, as the road tilts up, w/kg becomes a more important performance-predicting metric than watts alone.
The hillier Monuments, such as Liège–Bastogne–Liège and Il Lombardia, have multiple steep climbs lasting 5-15 minutes. W/kg is more important than pure wattage on these climbs, giving lighter riders the advantage over pure-watt monsters such as Mathieu Van der Poel or Wout Van Aert.
MVDP and WVA have the advantage in flatter Monuments like Paris-Roubaix because they can simply do more watts.
Simply put, the estimated threshold power of riders like MVDP or WVA is 460-470w. Contrast that with smaller riders like Tadej Pogačar or Remco Evenepoel, whose threshold power is around 400w.
In flatter races, MVDP has the advantage over Evenepoel in terms of raw wattage. But on steep climbs, w/kg comes into play. This gives Evenepoel the upper hand because he is significantly lighter than MVDP.
Evenepoel’s threshold: ~400w / ~61 kg = 6.5w/kg
MVDP’s threshold: ~470w / ~78 kg = 6w/kg
Liège–Bastogne–Liège
Liège–Bastogne–Liège is one of the oldest and most challenging one-day cycling races, spanning around 250 kilometers through the Ardennes region of Belgium. Known for its demanding terrain featuring numerous steep climbs and descents, the race often takes around 6 to 7 hours to complete. Its route includes iconic ascents such as the Côte de la Redoute and the Côte de Saint-Nicolas. Riders usually climb over 4000 vertical meters.
Given the profile of Liège–Bastogne–Liège, it suits climbers who can maintain a strong pace on demanding ascents and possess the stamina to endure long distances. It is not surprising that this classic has been won in the past by riders such as Remco Evenepoel, Tadej Pogačar, or Primož Roglič, who are among the top GC riders ever.
Paris-Roubaix
Paris-Roubaix is brutal due to its cobblestone sections and challenging terrain. Spanning around 250 kilometers, from which over 50km on cobblestones, test the bike-handling skills and resilience. The race is typically finished within six hours, with its iconic finish at the Roubaix Velodrome adding to the drama and spectacle of the event.
This monument suits big and powerful riders who can sustain higher absolute power and those who can handle their bike well. In other words, classics specialists. Given the cobblestone sectors that define the race, riders must navigate the rough terrain with precision and power to maintain position and conserve energy for an eventual finish sprint or late race attack.
Il Lombardia
Covering a distance of around 240 kilometers, Il Lombardia typically starts in Como and finishes in Bergamo. It is a race known for its challenging climbs. It takes around six to seven hours to complete. The route includes iconic climbs such as the Madonna del Ghisallo and the Muro di Sormano, making it a true test of climbing ability and endurance.
Like LBL, the Giro di Lombardia nurtures more climbers and punchers who have the endurance but also the downhill skills for technical descents. Lombardia offers several opportunities to attack, so endurance is particularly important here. It is probably not surprising that the last three editions have been dominated by one of the most talented riders of today, Tadej Pogačar.
Milano-Sanremo
Milan-San Remo covers a distance of approximately 300 kilometers. As the longest professional one-day race on the cycling calendar, it often takes around seven hours for riders to complete. The route includes iconic climbs such as the Passo del Turchino and the famous ascent of the Poggio before the thrilling descent into San Remo, making it a test of endurance, strategy, and punch from the remaining energy reserves.
Milan-San Remo is hard to predict because it can end with a group sprint or a solo attack on Poggio. However, it favors riders who possess a combination of endurance, racing finesse, power, and descending skills. Riders must have the stamina to endure the course while conserving energy for the decisive moments in the finale on Poggio. The following descent also requires a high level of handling skills so the leading rider avoids being caught by chasers.
Tour of Flanders
The Tour of Flanders is known for its cobbled climbs and challenging terrain. Spanning approximately 250 kilometers, the race usually finishes in Oudenaarde. The route features iconic cobbled sections such as the Oude Kwaremont and the Paterberg, which demand technical skills, a strong punch, and, of course, endurance.
In the RVV, riders also have to dispose with tactical awareness to have the best chance of victory. Like Milano-Sanremo, the RVV is a difficult race to predict. In recent years, it has been won more by Classics riders like Mathieu van der Poel and Kasper Asgreen. However, last year Tadej Pogačar broke that trend.
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In the final article of our Monument series, we’ll take a closer look at the future of cycling Monuments.