(Photo: Vuelta 2020 Stage 11 – Luis Angel Gomez/Getty Images)
l’Angliru.
Tomorrow is all about one climb. There are a few preceding – a couple are quite tough themselves – but everyone know that l’Angliru is the decider.
13.2km at 9.4%, but it is the final 6km with an average of over 13% that will do the damage. l’Angliru is one of the most feared climbs in cycling, and its 20% grades have brought the world’s strongest bike riders to a grinding halt on the foggy mountain pass.
The fastest riders will climb the final pitches at less than 10mph. The groupetto will hardly be moving, going around 3-4mph for the majority of the climb.
I doubt we see any attacks before the final ascent of the l’Angliru tomorrow, and if we do, I doubt they’ll be successful. A rider needs every bit of energy they have to get up the climb, not only fast, but also at all.
Guillame Martin will be in the breakaway tomorrow – his Cofidis team showed a fine display of strength today by dragging back the first break of the day, helping Martin make the second and decisive move. The Frenchman in the mountains jersey will be in the break again tomorrow, but he’ll be going for the mountain points and have no energy left to challenge for the stage win. I give the breakaway a 2% chance of succeeding tomorrow. If a large group gets away (unlikely) with a host of mountain goats in it, the breakaway could make it. But I don’t see this happening.
Jumbo-Visma saved their matches today for a full assault tomorrow. Gesink, Bennett, and Kuss barely pulled – I’m not sure Primož Roglic touched the wind once the entire stage. They will certainly be fresh tomorrow, with plenty of firepower to both control the peloton and attack the final climbs.
Roglic looks so incredibly strong right now, I can’t see anyone beating him one-on-one up l’Angliru tomorrow. Carapaz will be close, and Wout Poels could be there with him. The Dutchman has a strong history on l’Angliru, and showed good form by climbing to 12th on Stage 11.
Hugh Carthy has seeded little bits of time on each of the recent mountain stages, and tomorrow will be a day of reckoning for the Brit. With a huge aerobic motor, he could put in the performance of a lifetime and leap onto the GC podium by staying with Roglic and Carapaz. Completely crack, and he could fall out of the Top 10 entirely.
Dan Martin will be an interesting watch tomorrow. He hadn’t shown good form in a long while until the first stages of la Vuelta this year. Now the Irishman seems to be back to his best, but tomorrow’s climb will be a huge test.
Movistar hae multiple options with Mas, Soler, and Valverde, but how much energy did Soler expend with over 80kms of attacking today? Tomorrow, we will quickly find out. Mike Woods could go for the stage win. It would be great to see Woods and Kuss duke it out on the 17+% grades, but my hunch is that they’ll be on domestique duties for their respective team leaders.
Once again, I see Roglic coming out on top, with Carapaz second, and Wout Poels in third. No matter what exactly transpires on the slopes of l’Angliru, it will certainly be epic.