(Photo: Hugh Carthy attacked with 1.2km to go to win Stage 12 of la Vuelta -David Ramos/Getty Images)
What a ride from Hugh Carthy. Few expected that – I know I didn’t.
I hoped the Brit would be strong, but I didn’t think he would be the strongest.
Carthy crawled away from the lead group – as quickly as you can on a 16% grade – with 1.2km to go on l’Angliru, and forged a formidable gap on the way to a career-defining stage win. He also moved himself onto the GC podium, ahead of Dan Martin who didn’t have a horrible day in the slightest, but will be fearing Tuesday’s time trial.
Carthy has struggled to live up to expectations after he was talked and written about so much as a youngster. Some expected him to become the next British Grand Tour hopeful, and just a week ago, that honor went to Tao Geoghegan Hart when he won the Giro d’Italia at just 24 years old. After a few years of trying, Carthy has finally reached the literal and metaphorical top. In the form of his life, could he put in a good enough ride in the ITT to take the red jersey from Roglic before Madrid?
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After the rest day is Stage 13, a 33.7km Individual Time Trial finishing atop the Mirador de Ézaro. It’s a weird-looking profile – not unlike Stage 20 of the 2020 Tour de France which finished at the top La Planche des Belles Filles – lightly rolling for 30-odd kilometers, before hitting a wall that rises to the finish. That ‘wall’ is 1.8km long with an average gradient of 14.2%. Riders can expect to see flashbacks to l’Angliru from just 48 hours ago.
By my rough calculations, the fastest riders should finish the climb in around 6-7 minutes, meaning that a bike change is not out of the question. The central portion of the climb is around 14-16%, meaning that even the fastest riders will struggle to hold 20kph. Weight will be of the utmost importance for this final climb, so I expect to see bike changes for many of the top contenders.
Roglic is the heavy favorite, but today’s underwhelming performance and his infamous collapse at the Tour decrease the confidence levels of all those involved. Carapaz is in the leader’s red jersey, but there is no way he loses less than 10 seconds to Roglic in Stage 13. He’ll make up time on the final climb, but I fear he’ll have lost over a minute already by then.
Carthy could spring a surprise on Tuesday, even more surprising than today’s triumph. The lanky Brit hasn’t gone for many time trials in the professional ranks, but his recent performances are promising. In the 2019 Giro, Roglic won a flat-then-uphill TT, while Carthy placed 8th, and Carapaz wasn’t far behind in the Top 10. With no recent time trialing form to go off of, it’s anyone’s guess as to how much time Carthy loses to Roglic on Tuesday. I think he’ll go better than Carapaz, and much better than Dan Martin, losing less than a minute to Roglic and beginning to sniff the second spot on the podium in Madrid.
For the stage, I think Will Barta could have a fantastic ride. The American has been quietly riding himself into Top 20 placings on a number of the summit finishes, and he’s gone well in the time trial during his short stint in the WorldTour ranks.
There’s not many TT specialists at this year’s Vuelta, but Ian Garrison is another name that sticks out. He crushed me (and everyone else) at both the U23 and US Pro Time Trials in 2019, and he could well be on the stage podium by tomorrow evening.
Other names that stick out to me for Tuesday’s TT: Nelson Oliveira, Remi Cavagna, and Jasha Sütterlin.
If he does go full gas, it would be great to see Chris Froome earn a top result in the time trial.