(Jasper Philipsen wins Stage 15 of la Vuelta – David Ramos/Getty Images)
Oh how that wet and wild weather completely changed the course of today’s stage. Surely, a breakaway of that quality on a 220+km Classics-style day would hold off the peloton, in normal circumstances. But not with a 50kph headwind.
Wellens, Costa, Sanchez, Cattaneo, and the like seemed to have it in the bag, but the chase was so easy. In winds like that – unless they’re blowing from the back – the breakaway has not a chance. Cattaneo tried as he could, but was swept up with still a few kilometers to go, and we got to witness an uphill sprint that no one expected.
Philipsen timed his effort perfectly, beating Ackermann and Steimle to claim the biggest win of his young career. His outpour of emotion after the stage – celebrating, screaming, and almost crying with his teammates – put a smile on my face, and I hope it did yours too. It’s a feeling like no other.
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Stage 16 to Ciudad Rodrigo (162km)
Another hilly stage, but this one promises more fireworks. The real climbing begins about halfway through the stage with the category 2 Puerto El Portillo (14.3km at 4.4%). The beginning is the toughest part, as the first five kilometers average over 6%. Still, this is hardly a course built for pure climbers, and we’re likely to see a mix of Classics riders, puncheurs, climbers, and domestiques in the break as we saw today.
I could be wrong, but I think Guillame Martin hasn’t quite sealed up the mountains jersey yet, so he will probably try again for the break tomorrow – he might miss it, but then he’ll just bridge the gap himself.
The second major climb of the day, the Puerto El Robledo (11.8km at 3.9%) is where the race will be won and lost. Forget about the first 6km – at first, it’s only 4-5%, and then it goes downhill for 3km before the real climb begins. The last 5.5km of the climb average around 7%, with the steepest bit in the middle being a kilometer at over 8%. On tired legs, after two and half weeks or racing at la Vuelta, we will see who has the legs to win the stage, versus who wants to fly home.
After a quick descent at just 35km to go, there are two more unclassified climbs before the finish – the final moments to make inroads on the riders ahead, or launch one last uphill attack. Since the course is neither too long nor too hard overall, I expect to see a fascinating tactical battle within the breakaway who I am confident will take the stage win (50kph all-day headwind notwithstanding).
Tim Wellens pulling out of the break today was a sign of things to come, I think. The Belgian knew that today’s breakaway had little chance to succeed, and so decided to save his energy for tomorrow.
There will be lots of cold and tired riders tomorrow, meaning that the veterans of the peloton could come to the fore. Rui Costa looked good again today – especially in the horribly wet conditions – and could be have another shout at the stage tomorrow.
Marc Soler will like the look of this profile – the only question is, will his legs be magical or jelly-filled? There hardly seems to be any in-between.
Sunweb seem to put a strong young gun in the break on every hilly stage, and tomorrow should be no different. I like Michael Storer to make the move, on a slightly more mountainous route than previous days. Because of this reason, I also expect to see Ion or Gorka Izagirre in the breakaway tomorrow. One final pick for the breakaway: Gino Mäder, whose solo breakaway today was mightily impressive (6.2w/kg for 15min, in the rain, 200km into a 6.5 hour stage, by the way).
My pick for tomorrow: Marc Soler.