(Photo: Tim Wellens wins Stage 14 of the Vuelta a España – Justin Setterfield/Getty Images)
Bang on with the Wellens pick today! Chapeau to the Belgian who was not only mightily strong, but also showed brilliant tactical awareness by getting around the slower riders on the descent, bridging up to Soler and Stybar, and then taking the lead with perfect timing to round the final bend first and take the stage win. (Was that a run-on sentence?)
Maybe I’ve only become aware this season, but it amazes me how certain riders so consistently show themselves at the front in a Grand Tour. Sure, it has a lot to do with the legs, but I think after one of two successes, that success breeds confidence, and from there, the form just keeps on building.
Wellens now has two stage wins, Woods has a stage win and two runner-up placings, Soler has been in a successful breakaway at least three or four times now, Roglic has four stage wins, and today, Guillame Martin didn’t make the break on a hilly stage for the first time since… the Tour?
Today’s breakaway consisted of the strongest of the strong, but with 25km to go, I thought the peloton was going to bring them back. Astana and Total Direct Energie did the lion’s share on the front, but with 20km, the bigger teams blocked the road, and that was that. The break split in fascinating fashion on a descent with 13km to go, but the trios combined again at 1.2km to go at the bottom of the final climb. There’s no other way to say it: Woods had the best legs, but Wellens played it perfectly, knowing about the (frankly ridiculous) corner with 25m to go, and giving the Canadian no chance to come around him despite a full head of maple syrup-powered steam.
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Stage 15 – Mos to Puebla de Sanabria (230.8km)
Finishing nearly 900m higher than it starts, Stage 15 is going to be a tough one. There is a lot of climbing throughout the stage, but nothing that should trouble the GC contenders. The toughest ascent of the day is the category 3 Alto de Forriolo (5.4km at 6.7%), but this comes with over 140km to go, and even then, it is not that sharp of a climb.
The rest of the rollers are all less than 10km long, with gradients averaging just 3-5% and “steep” pitches of 7%. It’s a great day for the breakaway, as anyone with great legs can put the pain into their rivals and cause them to crack after 200km at 300w.
The final climb of the Alto de Padornelo (6.8km at 3.8%) tops out with 19km to go, meaning that it will be an interesting run-in to the finish no matter which group you’re watching. I don’t think the sprinters survive to contest the stage tomorrow, it’s just too tough. The breakaway looks keen to take the win again – as hard as it is to predict a stage like this, I’ll try my best.
Breakaway picks: Marc Soler, Tim Wellens, Guillame Martin, Rui Costa, Nans Peters, Rémi Cavagna, and both of the Izagirre’s.
I’ll pick Rui Costa for the win.