(Photo: Will Barta on the final climb – Vuelta Stage 13 ITT – Tim de Waele/Getty Images
Oh so close for Will Barta today. I was rooting for him from beginning to end – not just because he’s American, but I’ve raced with him and met him before, and he is one of those guys who is 100% genuine, super nice, and has worked so hard to get to where he is now.
I figured he’d have a good ride, but was unsure if he would challenge for the stage win. With the likes of Cavagna, Oliveira, and Roglic on the start list, it was always going to be a tall task.
But the American delivered – nearly? I find it impossible to say that 2nd place is a failure. Barta is still only 24, and probably (hopefully) has a long career ahead of him. He had a chance at winning the Baby Giro a few years ago, until he crashed out and couldn’t ride a bike for months. His time trialing is among the best in the world right now, and he’s been climbing near the best too, finishing in the Top 20 and 30 on many of the mountain stages this Vuelta.
I actually met Will at the Tour de l’Abitibi in 2013. And I knew he would go on to be a great time trialist when he won the Stage 3 ITT in Rouyn-Noranda. I was 58th that day, 1’19” behind Barta…in a 9.6km time trial…
Anyway, Primož Roglic delivered today, but it wasn’t as harsh of a beating as many expected. The Slovenian won the stage and took the leader’s jersey, but only gained 25 seconds on Hugh Carthy and 49 on Richard Carapaz. Many predicted Roglic would take two minutes out of Carapaz, and at least a minute out of Hugh. On his best day, I think Roglic is capable of this. Are the cracks starting to show? Just like at the Tour – there was never an implosion, but rather a gradual wearing down that culminated in Roglic losing the Tour on the final day.
As a fan, I sure hope he wins the Vuelta a España after the season he’s had and the criticism that he’s come under.
***
On to Stage 14, a hilly-but-not-mountainous stage that finishes on a 1.1km climb averaging 6.5%. Wait, is this Stage 10? Let me check…
No, not quite. Stage 10 was hilly-but-not-mountainous and finished on a 1.5km climb averaging 5.9%. Completely different. Not.
In all seriousness, I think Stage 14 will be a repeat of Stage 10. Roglic looks to be the strongest right now, and he surprised the puncheurs that day with a demolishing kick. The Slovenian already has four stage wins in 13 days, and I think he’ll make it 5 in 14 tomorrow.
Predicting a stage like this seems far too easy – I’m tempted to just copy-and-paste the Top 10 from STage 10. Felix Großschartner looked mighty strong that day, and I think he simply mistimed his effort, giving Roglic the jump and plenty of time to celebrate. The Austrian is in with a shout tomorrow.
Aranburu and Bagioli could be up there, but Stage 14 is much harder overall, basically up and down all day with another tough finish. I think Bagioli is strong enough to survive and sprint for the win, but Aranburu could struggle a bit more. The course doesn’t look hard enough for the GC teams to take an interest, but that gives a better chance to the breakaway as well.
Jumbo-Visma will be controlling at the front now that Roglic is in red, but with already four stage wins to his name, I doubt they risk their riders chasing after another.
Does Guillame Martin do in the breakaway again tomorrow? The Frenchman has an absolutely massive lead in the mountains classification, but with a hilly start, three late climbs, and an uphill finish on offer tomorrow, I think he’s going in the break again.
Breakaway picks for tomorrow (besides G. Martin): Wellens, Aranburu, Bagioli, Magnus Cort, and Robert Stannard. If the break makes it to the line, I like Aranburu the best.